Friday, February 8, 2013

In the long run, the correlation between the bilateral US dollar to euro exchange rate, and different measures of the effective exchange rate of Euroland, has been rather high, especially when one looks at the effective real exchange rate. As inflation is at very similar levels in the US and the Euro area, there is no need to adjust the US dollar to euro rate for inflation differentials. However, because the Euro zone also trades intensively with countries that have relatively high inflation rates (e.g. some countries in Central and Eastern Europe, Turkey, etc.), it is more important to downplay nominal exchange rate measures by looking at relative price and cost developments.

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